| Key Central Bank rate | Current rate, % | Previous rate | Next meeting date |
| CBR | 16,00 | 16,00 | 26/04/2024 |
| ECB | 4,50 | 4,25 | 06/06/2024 |
| BOE | 5,25 | 5,00 | 09/05/2024 |
| FOMC | 5,50 | 5,50 | 01/05/2024 |
| o/n | o/n | o/n | 30 — Day Average | ||||
| RUONIA | 15,73% | MOSPRIME | 20,88% | ESTR | 3.9100% | SOFR | 5.3299900% |
USD. Sentiment on global platforms is centered around statistics and geopolitics.
In terms of statistics, the US dollar confirms the stability in the economic recovery and further push back the decisions on monetary policy easing. The March retail sales report was almost double the forecast and reflected an increase of 0.7% m/m after soaring earlier by 0.9%. On a year-over-year basis, the index climbed 4.0%. Consumers are active. The latest US statistics released are pro-inflationary in nature. Investors highly doubt that the Fed will decide to lower the interest rate in June — the first reduction is expected in September.
The statistics has a negative impact on the financial plans of the corporate market, as the rate cut is already included in the annual strategy. The yields on 2-year and 10-year treasuries are rising at 4.9820% and 4.6380% and dragging the dollar, whose IDX.USD index reached a 2-year high of 106.45. The dollar is rising and pulling the entire market with it. The stock market is closing on a minor note — the leading indices DJ, Nasdaq and S&P 500 are recovering from the previous day’s drawdown and do not show volatility. The market is waiting for a correction in the US dollar.
EUR. For the euro, the pivot point of the week was the level of $1.0620. Positive statistics from the Eurozone keeps from the next test of $1.0535.
The ZEW German Economic Sentiment Index (Apr) 42.9 (forecast 35.9) and the overall index 43.9 (forecast 37.2) are positive. Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) (y/y) (Mar) came out unchanged at 2.9% (forecast 2.9). Consumer prices in the euro area increased by 2.4% in March 2024 in annualized terms after rising by 2.6% in February, the European Union’s statistical office (Eurostat) said in its final report. The March figure matched both the preliminary estimate and analysts’ consensus forecast presented by Bloomberg. Relative to the previous month, prices in the Eurozone rose by 0.8%.
It should still be noted that the main driver for the market is data from overseas, so the euro may be supported by the dollar correction in the next few weeks. The corridor for trading is $1.0580 — 1.0650.
Brent. The asset closes the week near $86.00 per barrel. Brent quotes retreated slightly amid an unexpected increase in commercial oil inventories in the United States, by 2.735 million barrels for the week according to the Ministry of Energy (forecast 1.600 million barrels). However, fears of expanding conflict in the Middle East are growing, and supply constraints are forming a supply deficit amid rising demand.
The geopolitical backdrop is extremely tense. This past weekend, Iran attacked Israel, firing more than 300 missiles and 100 drones into its territory. Iran commented on the attack as retaliation for the destruction of its embassy by the Israeli army in Syria. It was the first direct attack from the Iranian side against Israel.
The trading corridor for the coming week is $86.80-90.20.
RUB. The Russian ruble recovered slightly after testing $95.00 the day before and is closing the week near $93.20. Inflation expectations of the Russian population in April weakened to 11% from 11.5% a month earlier. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures are not abating. From the weekly inflation data published by Rosstat (for the period from April 9 to April 15) it follows that in annual terms inflation amounted to 7.83% compared to 7.79% in the previous week. Further weakening of the ruble could fuel inflation, which in turn could affect inflation expectations.
China’s exports to Russia posted their first annual decline in many months, signaling difficulties in trade relations and problems in cross-border payments. This development could have a lasting impact on the trade balance and exchange rate.
China’s imports from Russia, including pipeline and sea shipments, jumped 12.5 percent year-on-year to 10.81 million metric tons, or 2.55 million b/d, last month, according to the General Administration of Customs.
The focus for the week ahead is the Bank of Russia’s key rate meeting. Analysts are inclined to believe that its value will remain at the previous level of 16%. Corridor for the ruble remains the same — $93.20-94.80.