| Key Central Bank rate | Current rate, % | Previous rate | Next meeting date |
| CBR | 16,00 | 16,00 | 07/06/2024 |
| ECB | 4,50 | 4,25 | 06/06/2024 |
| BOE | 5,25 | 5,00 | 20/06/2024 |
| FOMC | 5,50 | 5,50 | 12/06/2024 |
| o/n | o/n | o/n | 30 — Day Average | ||||
| RUONIA | 15,85% | MOSPRIME | 20,88% | ESTR | 3.904000% | SOFR | 5.3237100% |
USD. On global platforms, attention is focused on inflation statistics, which strongly influences not only the dynamics of the dollar index, but also the market as a whole.
According to the published data, the consumer price index (CPI) in the U.S. in April rose by 3.4% compared to 3.5% in March, and the annualized core rate, excluding food and energy prices, amounted to 3.6%, which is lower than the previous value of 3.8%, but in line with the market forecast. Although inflation still remains well above the 2% target, the statistics put significant pressure on the US dollar. At the same time, it signaled to market participants that the Fed may start easing monetary policy in Q3.
Comments from Fed members regarding the maintenance of the current rate level help to maintain the dollar’s advantage. Minneapolis FRB President Neel Kashkari said that he is not convinced that the current «tight» monetary policy is having a dampening effect on inflation, so interest rates should be kept unchanged.
The dollar index IDX.USD is feeling confident in the 104.45 area. The U.S. stock market continued to rise on the back of inflation data — the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit all-time highs, 5,325.49 and 16,797.83 respectively, and the DJ crossed the 40,000.00 mark for the first time ever. Yields on 10- and 2-year treasuries were 4.4380 and 4.8350.
EUR. The euro is in the favorites of the past weeks and confidently trades near the level of $1.0850, having received support thanks to statistics, both from the ocean and from the euro zone itself. The focus of the past week was on the EU inflation data. As expected, in April the European consumer price index remained unchanged at 2.4%, while the core index at 2.7%. Thus, the dynamics of inflation makes it clear that the target benchmark of 2% is achievable at the given pace. First of all, analysts are unanimous in the opinion that the ECB may start to adjust the rate downward as early as in June. The probability that the easing of the European monetary policy will happen earlier than in the USA is very high.
The technical picture in the pair with the US dollar indicates a test of the resistance area at $1.0935 in the coming week. Thus, the bullish sentiment in the pair will continue.
Brent. The news about the tragedy of the death of the President of Iran and the Foreign Minister of this country, sent quotations to test $85.00 per barrel. The level has not been broken yet, but the market is trading near $84.00 per barrel. The market focus is centered on OPEC+ decisions on possible production reduction by 0.5% per day on average, which is enough to send the market to storm $90.00 per barrel.
The Ministry of Energy traditionally presented a report on weekly crude oil stocks in storage. During the past week, crude oil stocks decreased by -2.508 million barrels (forecast -0.40 million barrels) and gasoline stocks by -0.235 million barrels (forecast 0.880 million barrels), which is attributed to the start of the summer season. The deficit supports demand for raw materials and holds quotations. In addition, the price dynamics is largely influenced by the events of the Middle East conflict. In the coming week, the corridor for trading $83.50-86.50.
RUB. During the long May holidays, two significant economic and political events took place — the decision of the Bank of Russia to keep the key rate at the same level of 16% following its meeting on April 26 and, on May 16, the first two-day state visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to China at the invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping since his inauguration. After 2.5 hours of talks, the two leaders signed a joint statement on deepening relations of comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation. A total of 11 bilateral documents were signed by the delegations of both countries.
The ruble was stable in the $90.50-91.30 corridor throughout the May vacation and continues to trade near $90.75. The balance between the demand for foreign currency and its supply is preserved, which ensures the stability of the ruble exchange rate and its relatively low volatility. The factor of the tax period should intensify in the coming week amid the approaching peak of exporters’ fiscal payments on May 28. Strong support for the ruble is at the level near $90.00. A test of this level is expected in the coming week.