| Key Central Bank rate | Current rate, % | Previous rate | Next meeting date |
| CBR | 16,00 | 16,00 | 26/07/2024 |
| ECB | 4,25 | 4,25 | 12/09/2024 |
| BOE | 5,25 | 5,00 | 01/08/2024 |
| FOMC | 5,50 | 5,50 | 31/07/2024 |
| o/n | o/n | o/n | 30 — Day Average | ||||
| RUONIA | 15,29% | MOSPRIME | 20,88% | ESTR | 3,6650% | SOFR | 5,34915% |
USD. It’s been an eventful week market had an eventful week. The key one being the assassination attempt Д. Trump, who is currently the direct and only powerful competitor to J. Biden. competitor to J. Biden. And as for the current President of the United States, he has been diagnosed with Covid-19.
All these events added volatility to the financial markets and led to a short-term sharp strengthening of the dollar. American indices S&P 500 and Nasdaq, meanwhile, after updating the next historical peaks began to remove the medium-term overbought with the nearest targets of correction development to 5,500.00 and 17,950.00 respectively. The dollar index IDX.USD amounted to 105.50. The yields on 2-year and 10-year bonds were 4.3770% and 4.2200%.
Statistics on the U.S. positive for the market. New home construction in June increased by 1.353 mln. (forecast 1.300 mln.), showed a positive dynamics Base retail sales index for June in the month of 0.4% (forecast 0.1%). Overall, the data suggests that the economy is used to tight monetary policy.
EUR. The key event of the next week in the region was the ECB meeting. The key rate was kept at the same level of 4.25%. Caution after the last rate cut looks justified: the uneven recovery of individual European countries, which the ECB has to take into account when making decisions, is becoming more and more noticeable.
Final data on eurozone consumer inflation for June (core, rose 2.5% y/y and core, 2.9% y/y. The regulator’s pause in interest rate cuts may support the euro short-term.
The euro closes the five-day period quite high near the $1.0920 level. The short-term surge of activity associated with the attempted assassination attempt on D. Trump has had a short-term impact on the euro. Trump, had a short-term effect on the currency markets. The corridor for the coming week is $1.0850-1.0920.
Brent. Brent oil prices managed to consolidate near the $84.90 support Positive fundamental factors for prices remain the US road travel season and still limited OPEC+ oil supply along with hopes for stronger demand in developed economies as interest rates fall.
The US Department of Energy report once again shows a decline in crude oil inventories in storage. Over the past five days, the reduction amounted to — 4.870 million barrels (forecast -0.900 million barrels). Dynamics of prices for raw materials in the coming week will depend on the U.S. statistics and the events of the presidential election race. If the trend of strengthening of the US dollar continues, the trading corridor may shift to the support at $81.50 per barrel.
RUB. The Russian ruble confidently occupied the $86.50-87.50 corridor ahead of the Bank of Russia’s July 26 meeting on Friday. Tightening of the monetary policy is an expected event, so the market is ready for potential strengthening.
The improved geopolitical background and willingness to enter into negotiations also plays in favor of strengthening the national currency. Together, these factors improve investment sentiment.
The ruble is also supported by the approaching peak of the tax period, when exporters will increase sales of foreign currency.
Information that banks of friendly jurisdictions (Bank of China) have started rejecting cross-border payments significantly reduces demand for foreign currency.
On the eve of the meeting of the Bank of Russia it is possible that the ruble exchange rate will continue to strengthen in the corridor of $84.50-85.50.